Australian Open - Week 2 Begins!

Australian Open 2014 - Week 2 is underway!

As the start of the second week of the Australian Open draws near, let’s take a look at a few numbers on the performance of the remaining contenders on the men’s side. But first, looking back at the biggest surprises of the first week..

Most certainly the biggest surprise to me was the fact that Serena Williams lost a tennis match.  The last time she lost was in August, losing the Cincinnati final to Azarenka in a 3^rd set tiebreaker.  After that match, Serena went on a tear to end the year, winning the US Open, Beijing, and the year-end Championships. Only Li Na, Azarenka, and Jelena Jankovic managed to push Serena to a 3^rd set. Opening 2014 with the title in Brisbane—defeating Azarenka and Sharapova in straight sets along the way, Serena’s wins in the first 3^rd rounds of the Australian Open put her on a streak of 25 consecutive wins.  In their first four meetings, dating back to 2006, Ana Ivanovic had never won a set against Serena, but she managed to win from a set down, 4-6 6-3 6-3.

On the men’s side, the biggest surprise was Del Potro going down to Roberto Bautista Agut in round 2. Del Potro seemed primed to make a deep run at the AO, given his performance to end the year. After being upset by Hewitt in 5 sets in the 2^nd round of  the US Open, taking the title in Tokyo and Basel, and reaching the final in Shanghai. Del Po’s only losses for the remainder of 2013 were to Djokovic  and Federer, losing to each man twice but taking all four matches to a deciding third set.

Del  Potro also opened 2014 with a title in Sydney, defeating Tomic 6-3, 6-1. But in retrospect, perhaps there were warning signs—Del Potro was pushed to 3 sets by Nicholas Mahut and Radek Stepanek in his first two matches in Sydney; Rhyne Williams managed to win the first set of their first round encounter at the AO. But, as Del Potro seemed to suggest, he simply ran into an opponent that was playing extremely well in his 5 set loss to Bautista Agut.

The other biggest surprise—one that has surely garnered far less attention—is that world #119 Stephane Robert of France has made it to the round of 16 and the second week of the Australian Open.  What makes Robert’s presence among the last 16 even more unlikely is that he has already lost at the 2014 AO—in the final round of qualifying. He lost in straight sets to Michael Berrer in the third round of qualifying but was entered into the main draw as a lucky loser. His loss to Berrer provided to be rather fortunate—Berrer did defeat Michael Llodra in the first round, but subsequently lost to #26 seed Feliciano Lopez in the 2^nd round. Robert took the place of #21 Philip Kohlschreiber, who withdrew before his first round match, opening up a spot in the main draw. Robert capitalized on the opportunity—and with the early exit of John Isner, his section of the draw was certainly one of the easier ones—in each of his wins in the first three rounds, he never faced a top 50 opponent and faced only one inside the top 100, consecutively dispatching Aljaz Bedene, Michal Przysiezny, and Martin Klizan.

Robert’s run to the round of 16 certainly involved some luck, but kudos to the 33 year-old Frenchman for making the most of it. He dropped only one set in a tiebreaker in his 3 main draw matches.  He will need even more luck now, as he faces Andy Murray in the 4^th round.

And before turning our attention to the remaining contenders—gold stars for Australian youngsters Nick Krygios and Thanasi Kokkinakis for winning their first round matches—the two faced off in the finals of the 2013 AO junior tournament.  Kokkinakis’ victory over Igor Sijsling was the 17 year old’s first at the ATP level. Kyrgios (one year older) raised some eyebrows last year with a first round victory over Radek Stepanek at the French Open, and as noted by the excellent tennis blog HeavyTopspin, he joined a rather exclusive club of players to win a challenger before turning 18.  Another potential future contender to keep an eye on is Dominic Thiem—the 20 year old has already notched a few ATP level wins over top 100 opponents, most notably over compatriot Jurgen  Melzer (and he took Tsonga to three sets in Vienna last fall, with the Frenchman winning the decider in a tiebreaker) and  he earned his first win at a major with a first round victory over Joao Souza after grinding out three wins to qualify for the main draw.

 Assessing the performance of the remaining contenders

Now for the numbers:

One way of assessing how well a player is performing is by looking at winners and unforced errors. Fortunately, these statistics are recorded at the majors, so I quickly calculated some ratios. All of these numbers are not adjusted for the rank or ability of the opponents—so these should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

Now for the numbers:

One way of assessing how well a player is performing is by looking at winners and unforced errors. Fortunately, these statistics are recorded at the majors, so I quickly calculated some ratios. All of these numbers are not adjusted for the rank or ability of the opponents—so these should be taken with a grain of salt. This was intended to be just a quick glance at some ratios to see if anything interesting emerges. (*Note: I excluded statistics pertaining to Bautista Agut's decisive win over Tim Smyczek. I found it hard to believe that he had only 1 winner and 1 unforced error when winning 95 points in a 6-2,6-1,6-1 rout, so I think something went wrong in the data collection in that match.

Winners to Unforced Errors Ratio

Now for the numbers:

One way of assessing how well a player is performing is by looking at winners and unforced errors. Fortunately, these statistics are recorded at the majors, so I quickly calculated some ratios. All of these numbers are not adjusted for the rank or ability of the opponents—so these should be taken with a grain of salt.

One metric that is occasionally discussed is the ratio of winners to unforced errors.  I believe I have heard commentators suggest that a winner to UFE ratio of greater than one suggests a fairly high level of play.  Here’s how the remaining contenders stack up in this department:

Name	Winners	UFE	W-UFE
Dimitrov	99	52	1.90
Berdych	134	73	1.84
Nadal	73	42	1.74
Federer	117	70	1.67
Djokovic	134	85	1.58
Tsonga	123	82	1.50
Wawrinka	141	94	1.50
Robert	100	73	1.37
Murray	86	74	1.16
Bautista-Agut	93	82	1.13
Ferrer	151	145	1.04
Nishikori	104	104	1.00

The leader so far is actually Dimitrov—his first two rounds were relatively undemanding opponents , but hitting nearly twice as many winners as unforced errors is still impressive—and he did beat Raonic in 4 sets.  Berdych is also doing quite well, with 84% more winners than errors.  Nadal and Federer aren’t far behind, and Djokovic, Wawrinka, and Tsonga are all hitting considerably more winners than errors.  Murray isn’t doing quite as well—only 16% more winners than UFE, and Ferrer is hitting only 4% more—rather meager stats compared to the ratios of Berdych, Nadal, and Federer.  And we should note—Nadal took out Gael Monfils in the third round, whereas other paths to the second week have been not nearly as dangerous.

 Winners per Game

Now to look at another ratio—winners per game. I selected game as the denominator rather than sets or matches since there will likely be more variation in the numbers of points in a set or match compared to a game. Bautista-Agut went five sets with Del Potro, while Nadal’s first round match with Tomic lasted only a set, so the difference in numbers of points (and thus potential winners) greatly differs in this example. Games aren’t perfect since they can also vary in number of points, but they are probably better to use as a frame of reference than sets or matches.

The winners per game ratio could *possibly* be interpreted as how aggressively someone is playing. Higher numbers of winners per game generally suggests more aggressive play.

	Winners	Games	W-G
Wawrinka	141	91	1.55
Federer	117	81	1.44
Tsonga	123	94	1.31
Berdych	134	105	1.28
Djokovic	134	108	1.24
Nadal	73	60	1.22
Bautista-Agut	93	78	1.19
Ferrer	151	138	1.09
Nishikori	104	99	1.05
Murray	86	82	1.05
Robert	100	97	1.03
Dimitrov	99	114	0.87

  

The Swiss take the cake here, with Stan and Roger cracking close to 1.5 winners per game. Given that Dimitrov led the winners to UFE ratio comparison, it’s a surprise to see him in last place here, averaging less than one winner per game.  This suggests he’s playing more conservatively and that Fed and Stan are going for their shots.

Unforced Errors per Game

Next up—unforced errors per game. This metric might be considered less reliable than winners per game. Winners are obvious, but it’s not always clear whether an error is forced or unforced.  So this one should also be interpreted with some caution.

 

Name	Games	UFE-G
Wawrinka	91	0.46
Federer	81	0.70
Tsonga	94	0.70
Berdych	105	0.75
Djokovic	108	0.79
Nadal	60	0.86
Bautista-Agut	78	0.87
Ferrer	138	0.90
Nishikori	99	1.03
Murray	82	1.05
Robert	97	1.05
Dimitrov	114	1.05

Stan and Roger are once again #1 and #2! Wawrinka is way ahead of the pack,  averaging about 1 error every two games—that’s pretty clean tennis.  Tsonga is tied with Federer for third place here, making their 4^th round matchup even more interesting.

Breaks/Return Games Won Per Set

One last set of numbers for now…return games won per set gives us some sense of how well the players are returning. It is not an ideal metric, but it still gives us some perspective on how often each player is able to break serve in a set.

 

	RGamesWon	Sets	RG-Set
Robert	31	14	2.21
Nishikori	19	9	2.11
Dimitrov	21	11	1.91
Ferrer	19	10	1.90
Murray	20	11	1.82
Tsonga	12	7	1.71
Berdych	15	9	1.67
Djokovic	20	12	1.67
Federer	19	12	1.58
Nadal	12	9	1.33
Bautista-Agut	11	9	1.22
Wawrinka	11	11	1.00

The winner here is—much to my surprise—the lucky loser Stephane Robert, averaging more than 2 breaks of serve per set. However, as previously mentioned, his draw was not difficult, but he’s evidently returning serve skillfully. He will need every bit of his return skill and  more to stand a chance against Murray.  Nishikori is close behind, also with more than 2 breaks of serve per set, and Dimitrov and Ferrer are just under 2 per set. Murray and Djokovic are renowned for their return games, and they are further down the list at this point.

But I suspect they would rise to the top against tougher competition, since they can return well against everyone, not just first week opponents. 

The second week should be interesting—now the women’s title is up for grabs with Serena out of the picture, and Tsonga vs. Federer has the potential for a 4^th round blockbuster. And let’s hope for another great match between Djokovic and Wawrinka—their 4^th round meeting at the AO last year was an instant classic, and their 5 setter at the US Open wasn’t too bad either.

I’m picking Berdych to beat Ferrer; I think if his solid form continues he will be able to outhit Ferrer.

I don’t know how many times a lucky loser has made it to the round of 16 at a major, but I don’t see Stephane Robert having much luck against Murray.

Nishikori has managed to only take one set against Nadal in five meetings. Kei is talented and has earned his place in the second week, but I don’t see him outlasting Nadal in a best of 5 match, especially after Nadal’s straight sets win over Monfils.

Dimitrov seems like a good pick over Bautista Agut on paper—but then again so did Del Potro. He did beat Dimitrov last fall in Beijing, but it seems that, barring some breakthrough in his game, he probably can’t keep up the consistently high level forever. I’m going with Dimitrov to end his run. Those two may prove to have a tough battle, with the winner getting to take on Nadal.

Federer and Tsonga is a tough one to pick. Federer leads 9-4 in their career meetings, although Federer is 8-2 against Tsonga on hard courts.  Federer certainly had a rough year in 2013 and Tsonga knocked him out at the French, but I’m picking Federer to outlast Tsonga in 5 as he did in their 2013 AO quarterfinal meeting.

I’d say the person with the real advantage here is Murray (though statistically you have to favor Nadal to get to the final)—as long as he doesn’t think too far ahead and takes care of business. His 4^th round match will likely be a very quick blowout, and he will almost certainly be well rested to take on the potentially weary survivor of Tsonga vs. Federer.

Murray may be in better position to get to the semifinals than Federer or Tsonga, but he will still almost certainly have to contend with Nadal. I like Murray's chances against the Spaniard more than Fed or Tsonga, but he will have to be in top gear. Nadal leads 6-5 on hard courts against Murray--Murray is certainly capable of beating Nadal on hard courts, but Nadal has a much easier path to the semifinals since his most difficult path would be Nishikori and Dimitrov, and I don't see either of them beating Nadal in a best of 5 match unless Nadal is playing poorly and his opposition is in beast mode.

Let the second week begin!