Previewing the 2014 AO Men's Final: Who Stan should call before playing Nadal

If I were Stan Wawrinka…

I would celebrate with a very small amount of fine champagne for the epic win over Djokovic in the quarters, overturning a 14 match losing streak against the Serb, and I would be pretty happy with my win over Berdych, as I’ve now made it the finals of a major for the first time in my career.

While congratulations are in order for Stan the Man for his commendable run to the final, he faces a brutally difficult task in facing Nadal. He has never beaten Nadal. Actually, he hasn't taken a set off him. 

But consider this--Nadal and Wawrinka last met last November in the London Tour Finals. Nadal won by the slimmest of margins: 7-6(5), 7-6(6).  Based on the match statistics, Stan actually should have won this match. 

He actually won more points than Nadal (83 to 80), and while they each broke serve twice, Stan won more points on Nadal's serve than Nadal did on Stan's serve. Stan won 36% of points on Nadal's service games and reached break point seven times, while Nadal won 31% and reached five break points. 

It is fairly rare--though not unheard of--to win when your opponent does more damage to your serve than you to do to his or hers. For example--of Nadal's 75 wins in 2013, he won only 4 matches when his opponent won more return points on his serve than he did on his opponent's serve. In the other three matches he was pushed to three sets, once by Dimitrov and twice by Gulbis. Similarly, of Stan's 51 victories, only three times did he win when his opponent won more return points.

But seriously, this is what I would do:

Get on the phone with these three people:

1.     Nikolay Davkdenko. I suspect some of you won’t believe me until you check the link, but before you read the next sentence, take a guess at this: Davydenko and Nadal have played on hard courts 7 times—what do you think the head-to-head record is? 6-1. In favor of Davydenko.  Nadal’s only victory was their first meeting in 2006, winning a round robin match in 3 sets at the year end finals, and Davydenko has beaten Nadal the past six times they have played on hard courts in matches that have ranged from 2008 to 2011. To my knowledge, Nikolay is actually the only active player with a winning overall head-to-head record against Nadal (6-5) when all surfaces are considered. However, unlike Stan, Davydenko plays with a two-handed backhand. My impression of Davydenko is that his game might be considered comparable to Agassi’s—not the biggest guy—but a baseliner with a very good return game, and a solid backhand. 

2  2.  James Blake. Blake has a quite respectable 3-4 record against Nadal on hard courts. Blake won the first three meetings in 2005 and 2006, and Nadal won the remaining four, though Nadal never managed to beat Blake in straight sets on a hard court. Furthermore, he’s about the same size as Stan and has one-handed backhand as well.

3   3. Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny also has a pretty decent record against Nadal on hard courts,  winning four out of their nine hard court meetings. The only time they met in the Australian Open was in 2005, where Mischa pushed Nadal to 5 sets.

I find it pretty likely that Stan will consult with Federer as they are compatriots and friends, bringing Olympic gold to Switzerland by winning the men's doubles together in 2008. And as I wrote in my previous post, prior to his relatively poor season in 2013, Federer led Nadal 6-5 on hard courts. 

Others who might be of interest: Robin Soderling, the only man to have ever beaten Nadal at the French Open (and Soderling had lost to Nadal 6-1, 6-0 just a few weeks before in Rome) and Juan Martin Del Potro, who has split his 8 meetings with Nadal on hard courts. Both men certainly have a good understanding of tactics and strategy, but I think part of their strategy is simply being a huge guy and crushing the ball with flat groundstrokes at nearly unfathomable speeds. Stan can certainly hit some powerful groundstrokes, but he doesn't have the height advantage that guys like Soderling and Del Potro have on dealing with shots that bounce up to a height that is problematic for most. Still, it might be useful to revisit footage of Soderling's famous win and Del Potro's 6-2,6-2,6-2 rout of Nadal at the 2009 US Open--probably Nadal's most lopsided defeat at a major in his career.

If I were Stan or Magnus Norman (Stan’s coach), I really would be getting the footage of how Blake and Youznhy won their matches, since they are the most similar to Stan in size and the fact that they have one-handed backhands, which is generally considered a liability against Nadal. Evidently being a righty with a one-hander is not a death sentence when facing Nadal.

It is evident that guys like Del Potro and Soderling can overpower Nadal, with flat, powerful strokes that do not allow Nadal enough time to recover though Stan will need to likely find a somewhat different strategy to finish off points against Nadal.

Stan, you and Magnus need to break out the video footage, have a conference call with Youzhny, Davydenko, and Blake, and maybe Dimitrov too (he never has beaten Nadal but has given him close matches, always getting a set off of Nadal).

Belief: That other part of the game

And aside from the technical aspect of the game, Stan will have to focus on the match and believe with every last ounce of his spirit that he can win this match. I’m inclined to believe that his victory over Djokovic suggests that Stan has developed the mental toughness necessary for the biggest stages. I hope Magnus is drilling into Stan's mind, over and over, the fact that he absolutely has the talent and ability to win this match--that he is actually talented enough to beat anyone if he plays his best. Is he the underdog? Of course. But is it possible for him to win? Absolutely. 

He will need to play his best and play without fear. Go ahead and give Lukas Rosol and Steve Darcis a call too. They might know a little something about winning when everyone says it’s just not going to happen.