Big Victory for Stan and Murray vs. Federer
Stan Wawinka finally turned the tables on Djovokic and won 9-7 in the fifth set. Stan's shot-making ability is just about as good as anyone in the game. I don't think I have ever seen anyone else with a one-handed backhand that is such an incredible weapon. I've seen some pretty astounding backhand passing shots from vintage Federer, and Gasquet (Justin Henin too) also has a great one-hander, but I think Wawrinka may have the best one-handed backhand on the tour.
Check out the highlights and take a look at the long rally that ends around the 57 second mark--Stan's backhand is a both a thing of beauty and an amazing weapon.
I didn't realize that Djokovic was on a winning streak comparable to Serena's, last having lost in August at the US Open. That being said, despite the 15-2 head to head in favor of Djokovic going into the match, this upset is far less improbable and shocking than Serena's loss to Ivanovic, in my opinion. Ana had never taken a set from Serena, while Stan arguably could have won the previous two epics against Djokovic--he was very close.
Comparing Murray and Federer's previous matches
I calculated a few simple averages and ratios from the available stats on Murray and Federer's previous meetings. Murray leads overall, 11-9. If you exclude the two grass court meetings in 2012 (the pair has never met on clay), Murray leads on hard courts 10-8, winning their most recent match in the semis of last year's Australian Open in 5 sets.
Federer's Wins over Murray:
Here are some quick stats on Federer's 8 hard court wins over Murray:
Federer had a first serve percentage of 57.3% and won 80.5% of 1st serve points.
He won 59.3% of 2nd serve points, and he saved 63% of break points faced on serve.
Federer faced, on average, 1.25 break points per set. (In two victories, he never faced a break point.)
When returning, he won 32.5% of Murray's 1st serves and 50.2% of 2nd serves.
In his victories over Murray, Federer had an average of 3.6 break point opportunities per set, converting 47% of them, for an average of 1.5 breaks per set.
Federer's Losses to Murray:
In his 10 hard court losses to Murray:
Federer had a 1st serve percentage of 61.5% (surprisingly higher than in his victories) and won 66.1% of 1st serve points; he won 45% of his 2nd serves in his defeats to Murray.
Federer faced an average of 3.9 break points per set in his losses to Murray and saved 53%.
When returning, Federer averaged 2 break point opportunities per set and converted 42%, for an average of about 0.8 breaks per set.
Comparing Federer's Stats in Victories and Defeats Against Murray:
It was unexpected to find that Fed actually had a lower first serve percentage in his victories than his defeats, (57.3% in wins vs. 61.5% in losses) though common sense and intuition suggest Federer would be more likely to win with a higher percentage of 1st serves, but given Murray's skill in returning, perhaps this isn't as important as with other opponents.
However, once the first serve is in play is where the differences seem to arise: Fed won an average of 4 out 5 first serve points in victories and 2 out of 3 in defeats. This approximate 15 percentage point difference may be key--if Murray manages to get good returns on Federer's serve, the Swiss could be in trouble.
The same is true for second serves--Federer averaged 66% on second serve points in victories and less than half--45%--in defeats to Murray.
When facing Murray, a major difference in victories and defeats is the number of break points faced per set--he faced an average of only 1.25 break points on his serve when he won, and he faced nearly 4 break points per set in his defeats. Murray's return game is too strong to allow him very many chances to break to have a good chance at beating him, even with a serve as good as Federer's. In his victories, Federer saved 63% of break points faced and 53% in his defeats. However, even if Federer saves 60% of break points, if he faces 3 or 4 in a set, it is probable that Murray will break him.
So the key may be in Federer's ability to stay out of trouble on his serve and not allow Murray to get a lead on his serve.
On the return game, Federer's break point conversion rates were similar in victory and defeat (47% for wins, and 41% for losses) but the major difference is how many opportunities he gets--he averaged 3.6 chances per set to break the Murray serve when he won, and 2 chances per set in losses (Murray only had one victory over Federer in which he never faced a break point--their 2008 meeting in Dubai).
If Murray has a few loose services games and faces more than a handful of breakpoints per set, Federer will definitely have the edge.
Of course, this is all common sense to an extent--just serve well and don't drop your serve, and get a few break points to win a service game or two and you'll win.
But let's look at how they are performing as of late to see what we might expect:
Since Federer seems to win pretty close to half of Murray's second serves whether he wins or losses, Murray's percentage of points won on 1st serve appears to be more crucial: he averaged 78% when defeating Federer, and 67.5% in losses.
Murray has won 80.5% of first serve points in his first four matches, though he dipped to 76% in his most recent match against Stephane Robert. He faced six break points (losing one) over 4 sets in round 4, lost the only break point he faced in his straight sets victory against Feliciano Lopez, surprisingly lost 3 of the four break points faced in his round 2 win over #266 Vincent Millot, and didn't face a single break point in his 1st round rout of Go Soeda.
While Federer is not considered as great of a returner as Djokovic or Nadal (or Murray either), it's safe to say he can put more pressure on Murray's serve than any of the opponents in Murray's path to the quarterfinals. The match in which Murray faced the fewest break points when losing to Federer was in the 2012 World Tour Finals, where Federer converted all three break points.
Now to examine Federer's serving stats--he saved the only break point he faced against Tsonga, winning 88% of his first serves and 69% of second serves; he broke the Frenchman three times in seven opportunities. In his 3rd round win over Gabashvili, he won 87% of first serves and 57% of second serves--the Russian did have 5 break chances but Federer saved all five. In round 2 against Blaz Kavcic, he won 78% on the first serve and 50% on 2nd serves--he did face two break points, with Kavcic winning one, but Federer more than compensated for the loss of serve by breaking the Kavcic serve six times. And finally, in his opener against James Duckworth, Federer was dominant on first serves, winning 89% ( and a solid 58% on second serves). Federer never dropped serve in the 1st round encounter and faced only one break point, while getting 4 breaks on the Duckworth serve (though his conversion rate was low--he had 17 break chances).
Combining the numbers in my previous post about Federer's high winners per game and winners per unforced error ratio with the fact that he has dropped serve once in twelve sets of tennis and his high winning percentage on first serves, it looks like Federer is in the form necessary to beat Murray. Certainly if he plays as solidly as he did against Tsonga, I would heavily favor Federer's chances. Murray is winning a good percentage of first serves, but not as solid as Fed, and he has dropped serve 5 times in his route to the quarterfinals.
I'm sticking with my previous prediction--especially since Murray's back may present an issue--I think Federer beats Murray in 4 sets.
No comments:
Post a Comment