Analyzing the 2014 AO Men's Draw - The Last 8

Analyzing the 2014 AO Men's Draw - The Last 8

Federer fans must be encouraged by yesterday's result against Tsonga--I expected a tough 5 set match, but Federer needed only 3 sets to take out Tsonga, and he hasn't dropped a set in the first four rounds. The match against Tsonga was Federer's first real test, and he passed with flying colors, hitting 43 winners and 21 unforced errors--more than twice as many winners as unforced errors. He also saved the single break point he faced, while getting to break point on Tsonga's serve seven times, breaking him three times. Not bad against a dangerous top 10 opponent who knows something about playing well in Australia, given his run to the finals in 2008. It seems that Federer's racquet change is proving to yield much better results than his previous experiment with a different racquet last summer, and it probably doesn't hurt to have Stefan Edberg in your corner either.

Murray, much to my surprise, needed 4 sets to beat #119 Stephane Robert, who made an improbable run to the second week after failing to qualify and getting into the main draw as a lucky loser. This makes me wonder whether Murray's back is becoming an issue. It wasn't that long as ago that he had back surgery, and he lost to Florian Mayer in Doha in the 2nd round of Doha in his first tournament of the year.

An in-form Murray would be a difficult task for Federer, but I'm starting to like Fed's chances against Murray a bit more after the these results.

Nadal's victory was over Nishikori was also in straight sets, but was a much closer contest compared to Federer's victory over Tsonga. Nadal broke Nishikori 5 times, and Nishikori broke Rafa 4 times. The one break advantage proved to be the difference--Nadal won the second set 7-5, and the other two sets went to a tiebreak, but Nadal won them both.

Dimitrov ended Roberto Bautista Agut's Australian Open run in 4 sets. I suspected that Bautista Agut's hot streak had to eventually come to an end, and judging from the numbers, his level of play was not as strong as previous matches--he hit 27 winners but committed 45 unforced errors, and he broke Dimitrov once but dropped his own serve four times. 

Now that the quarterfinals are set, let's take a look at some performance metrics for the last eight. 

These measures were discussed in slightly more detail in my previous post, so I won't elaborate on the ratios here. 

Putting the winner to unforced error ratio in context

Before we examine the ratios--let's provide a bit of context on the winner to unforced ratio by looking at the stats for a very high level match. The 2008 Wimbledon final between Federer and Nadal has been billed by some as the greatest match of all time.

Federer struck 89 winners and committed 52 unforced errors, for a winner to UFE ratio of 1.71. Nadal hit 60 winners and committed 27 errors, for a winner to UFE ratio of 2.22.  As I previously mentioned, a commentator (I don't recall whom) suggested that a ratio of greater than 1 is good tennis. I think it's safe to say ratios of 1.5 and above are quite good,  and anything nearing  or exceeding 1.75 is very high level tennis.

So now let's take a look at the winners to unforced errors ratio for each match at the 2014 AO for the remaining players. Wawrinka had a free pass in round 3 after Vasek Pospisil withdrew, so there's no data for round 3 for Stan.

Winners to Unforced Errors

	R1	R2	R3	R4	Overall
Nadal	2.60	2.05	1.17	1.29	1.56
Dimitrov	3.50	1.03	3.77	1.12	1.59
Murray	2.46	0.81	0.97	1.02	1.11
Federer	1.76	1.49	1.94	2.05	1.76
Berdych	2.06	2.23	1.23	2.24	1.84
Ferrer	1.10	0.67	0.92	1.49	1.04
Wawrinka	2.09	1.33	N/A	1.54	1.50
Djokovic	1.33	2.73	1.35	1.57	1.58

Dimitrov has fallen from the top spot in this category after his four round match produced less than stellar results, especially compared to his 1st and 3rd round matches (I'm wondering if all of the data was collected for those matches, as 3.5 and 3.77 seem pretty extreme.)

Berdych leads with 1.84 for the overall ratio for the first four matches, and Federer has moved up to 2nd place with his excellent performance in round 4 against Tsonga, hitting more than two winners per UFE. Berdych put up even stronger numbers in round 4, hitting 2.24 winners per UFE.  It's good news for the Federer camp that his best numbers (for this ratio) came against his toughest opponent. 

Murray's numbers are not so great, excluding a solid 1st round ratio of 2.46. He actually hit more errors than winners in rounds 2 and 3, and just barely hit more winners than errors against Stephane Robert in round 4. 

David Ferrer's numbers aren't looking so great--particularly in rounds 2 and 3, although his round 4 performance is more solid.  Given Berdych's consistently high winner to UFE ratios in the tournament, I feel more confident about my pick for him to beat Ferrer. 

Wawrinka and Djokovic had similar ratios in round four and are also fairly close in the overall ratio for the first week, with Novak having a small edge. I'm keeping my hopes up that this will translate into another epic showdown that rivals their great matches at the AO and US Open last year.

Nadal and Dimitrov are also evenly matched in the overall ratios for the week, but I'm less hopeful that their quarterfinal will be quite as competitive. However, a commentator on AO Radio just mentioned that a blister on Nadal's hand might be a cause for concern. 

Now let's take a look at the winners per game ratio...

Winners per Game

	R1	R2	R3	R4	Overall
Nadal	1.30	1.50	0.88	0.95	1.11
Dimitrov	0.33	1.16	1.20	1.06	0.91
Murray	1.39	0.89	0.94	1.33	1.14
Federer	1.07	1.86	1.40	1.39	1.43
Berdych	1.25	1.12	1.23	1.52	1.28
Ferrer	1.14	0.80	0.76	1.60	1.09
Wawrinka	1.53	1.49	N/A	1.63	1.55
Djokovic	1.38	1.15	1.03	1.43	1.24

Nadal and Dimitrov lag behind  the rest of the field in the winners per game ratio. Wawrinka and Federer are still #1 and #2, with Stan, Ferrer, and Berdych putting up the best numbers in round 4.

Finally, let's look at the unforced errors per game ratio...

Unforced Errors per Game

	R1	R2	R3	R4	Overall
Nadal	0.50	0.73	0.75	0.74	0.71
Dimitrov	0.10	1.13	0.32	0.94	0.57
Murray	0.57	1.11	0.97	1.31	1.03
Federer	0.61	1.25	0.72	0.68	0.81
Berdych	0.61	0.50	1.00	0.68	0.70
Ferrer	1.03	1.20	0.83	1.08	1.05
Wawrinka	0.73	1.12	N/A	1.06	1.03
Djokovic	1.03	0.42	0.77	0.91	0.79

Dimitrov is committing the fewest errors per game (though I have some reservations about the data on his earlier matches), but the next best are Berdych (0.7), Nadal (0.71), Djokovic (0.79). Ferrer and Wawrinka have the worst ratios, gifting their opponents a little more than one free point per game with an unforced error.

So my predictions for the QFs:

I previously was leaning slightly toward Berdych over Ferrer, but looking at these numbers makes me a bit more confident that Berdych will prevail.  I'm going with Berdych in 4. 

I would like to see Wawrinka defeat Djokovic given their tremendous battles last year, but I just don't foresee Djokovic going out. Wawrinka may very well finally find what it takes to defeat Novak, and I think he will once again make it a great contest, but I'm going with Djokovic in 5. 

At the beginning of the tournament, I'm not sure that I would pick Federer to beat Murray, especially since his draw went through Tsonga territory, but with Federer's strong performance and Murray's questionable form, I'm picking Federer to win in 4 sets.

And finally, Nadal and Dimitrov--I think Grigor will be the first to take a set off of Rafa, but I think Rafa wins in 4--unless Nadal's hand proves to be a problem. Making the quarters is already a good result for Dimitrov, and I would be very surprised if he could best Nadal in a best of 5 contest unless Rafa is substantially hampered by the blistered hand.

The big names--minus Del Potro--have made it to the last eight...now it's time to see who is going to the semifinals!